SAN FRANCISCO -- California Gov. Gray Davis may confidently predict he will overcome an unprecedented effort to unseat him, but Internet bettors say the odds are that he will be out of a job by the end of the year.
Ireland-based Internet betting site TradeSports put the odds that Davis still will be in office by the end of September at about 35 percent as of Thursday.
The odds on the site are set through an online futures market based on bets being placed by both sides.
Those who believe Davis still will be in office at the end of the year stood to win $6 for every $4 wagered. Those betting against Davis -- selling the contract short -- would win $3.10 if he is out of office, or lose $6.90 if he bucks the odds and keeps his job.
Davis, a Democrat, faces the first recall vote in state history Oct. 7, largely over his handling of California's budget crisis.
Hal Varian, a professor of business at the University of California at Berkeley, said such online markets provide better predictions than traditional polls because cash forces a more dispassionate analysis of issues.
"You talk to a loyal Democrat they'll say, 'Oh no, Gray Davis won't be recalled.' You talked to a Republican they'll say, 'Of course, that **** will be taken out of office,"' Varian said. "They let their emotions or their desire influence their beliefs and opinion polls are subject to that wishful thinking."
"When it is money and the market is moved by the smart players, the guys who are weighing the odds and not weighing their emotions, you get a better forecast," he continued. "You have to put your money where your mouth is."
John Delaney, chairman of TradeSports, said in an interview from Dublin that more than 1,500 people traded futures contracts on Davis since the site opened that market July 2. Most bettors were either on the East or West Coast, he said.
http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59856,00.html
Ireland-based Internet betting site TradeSports put the odds that Davis still will be in office by the end of September at about 35 percent as of Thursday.
The odds on the site are set through an online futures market based on bets being placed by both sides.
Those who believe Davis still will be in office at the end of the year stood to win $6 for every $4 wagered. Those betting against Davis -- selling the contract short -- would win $3.10 if he is out of office, or lose $6.90 if he bucks the odds and keeps his job.
Davis, a Democrat, faces the first recall vote in state history Oct. 7, largely over his handling of California's budget crisis.
Hal Varian, a professor of business at the University of California at Berkeley, said such online markets provide better predictions than traditional polls because cash forces a more dispassionate analysis of issues.
"You talk to a loyal Democrat they'll say, 'Oh no, Gray Davis won't be recalled.' You talked to a Republican they'll say, 'Of course, that **** will be taken out of office,"' Varian said. "They let their emotions or their desire influence their beliefs and opinion polls are subject to that wishful thinking."
"When it is money and the market is moved by the smart players, the guys who are weighing the odds and not weighing their emotions, you get a better forecast," he continued. "You have to put your money where your mouth is."
John Delaney, chairman of TradeSports, said in an interview from Dublin that more than 1,500 people traded futures contracts on Davis since the site opened that market July 2. Most bettors were either on the East or West Coast, he said.
http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59856,00.html